ALLI strong this AM, while BLDR the one I liked more broke it's pricing.....I still believe ALLI is going to struggle on the bottom line going forward. However it appears that ALLI being a small offering of the type(niche healthcare) that has done well the past 5 years while BLDR increased offering size by 1 million(2 million more from insiders) tilted the playing field early...when in doubt go with the smaller offering.
I passed on ALLI, giving up a potential $2 quick aftermarket trade, while taking a 40 cent loss on BLDR when it broke pricing....not my finest moment!
I'm having problems locating any real great opportunities out there in offerings from the past 5 years. I think ctrn/lhcg/prai offer good mid-term risk-reward at these prices but that's about it. I'm waiting on PAY to come back, as well as sma/gfig/rail/morn/tlp and a few others.....just not a lot of ideal set-ups for me out there at the moment---unlike a month or so ago.
hope you all are doing well and did an anti-ipotrader today and bought tons of alli and shunned bldr...if you did your morning was better than mine!
...Bill....
No one in their right mind could have handicapped ALLI correctly...I sure would not have paid a $1 plus premium to get in after the opening. As for BLDR...I bought a nice chunk at 15.60 today. Fundamentals always win out in the long run and this company seems to have positive ones going for them in spades. Your analysis was good...The markets are crazy!
Posted by: Bill | June 22, 2005 at 02:34 PM
Hi Yossi! I went with BLDR at 16.75 and ended at 15.44. What do you think will happen going forward? Should I hold or sell? I broke even at NRGP. AllI never made money and priced at the low end and shot up.
What are you going to charge for your service? I will be interested.
Steve
Posted by: steve brwon | June 22, 2005 at 02:37 PM
I don't know what will happen going forward it's sort of what makes all this fun eh:)......It seems the hedgies want to push this to a bxc valuation, personally I disagree but look at the dwa chart to see what well-funded hedgies can do short term....bldr doesn't have a fat yield going for it plus the heavy leverage and the thought that we're at the top of the bulding/construction market ====ubs running/hiding today and essentially letting the hedge funds take over. I remarked about this phenomenon intitially when ORBZ(since taken over) came public in 12/03---it was at the time a return on the 'ask' that I hadn't seen since 2000/2001(thus ending the biggest ipo freeroll of all-time!) and it's been there for a handful of offerings since, including oxps most recently---when I see action like this I tend to step aside and not re-enter without reason....I'll watch, someone wants to put this one down, I'm not well-funded and/or smart enough to get in their way.
Posted by: bill | June 22, 2005 at 09:20 PM
Steve I've not decided yet, looking at August 1 for that, possibly further down the line: most important thing to me is to do this right, it's not about the $$$ I sincerely want to provide a service at a price point that subscribers can easily see value---I'm not going to ever make a significant amount of money off of membhership I don't think--and that's not something I'm shooting for having been making a living trading for as many years as I have.....My thinking is that it will be less than 2 discount broker trades per month which I think is fair.
Posted by: bill | June 22, 2005 at 09:42 PM