ipo trader

TLP

http://www.tradingipos.com/analysis/may/TLP.html

from my pre-ipo report:

'I'd expect TLP to find it's way in the 6% yield area at some point which would be the $27 area for the stock.'

EVVV

EVVV up on the site...I don't care for this one at all.

http://www.tradingipos.com/analysis/analysis.html

MEND - Micrus

MEND, Micrus priced below range at $11. thoughts here:

http://www.tradingipos.com/analysis/analysis.html

will have EVVV done tonight as well. 7 scheduled for next week, a few good looking ones.

morning...

PORK catching a bit of a bid in it's 2nd day....I felt the safer thing to do here was step back from it and play it if it broke it's pricing significantly. it did break but only by 25 cents or so. They discounted it by quite a bit and early it looks like it might have been enough. Why did I step back? 1) the real difficulty they had in pricing this coupled with insiders accounting for all the shares sold. 2) pork/hog prices have been declining for 9 months, very real possibility they're in the normal cyclical downtrend period and 3) leader SFD is down 20% in a few months with no real sign of traction.

sometimes yes I might be a bit too cautious, however even if I liked this one and bought it at pricing, my rules dictate a stop-out on a break to re-evaluate and I'd not have been in for this move. they dunked it nicely to shake it and are now moving it up here...I'll be keeping an eye on it.

PRAI secondary looks early to have gone well. I feel $27-$30 range is where this one should be trading, we'll see how that one plays out.

TLP has done well thus far, as noted on my pre-ipo report I think this will trade at a 6% yield basis at some point, putting the price roughly $27...that's where I'll be selling should it approach that target.

CTRN keeps trying to make a run at new highs. As I noted in an earlier entry I'm back in on the gap fill just under $17 after playing it first go round $14.85 avg to $18 1/2.  With ZUMZ breaking out(yet again!) I'm going to see if CTRN can make a move into the $20's...looks like the market swoon may have capped the early move this morning.

gfig/pay/sma, three that have been very good to me in '05 I'm still on the outside looking in at the moment waiting for re-entry opportunities.

RAMS I'll stop out on a break of pricing..shippers tough right now that 14% yield on RAMS pretty secure next 2 years and it still really can't catch a bid. I'm risking just 30 cents or so here downside so if it catches great if not, I'll stop out and move on.

CNTF due for coverage...as mentioned I liked the recent earnings report and I'm in for a bit from $16 1/4.

SHMR finally going to fill that gap and let me in?

LHCG, yawn..in from $15.9ish, will add more low $16's and on down, looking for $20+ down the line, be very surprised if it doesn't go there at some point.

HEMO - Hemosense

Hemosense(HEMO) analysis/thoughts up on the site:

http://www.tradingipos.com/analysis/analysis.html

PORK open...

and broke it's $12 1/2 pricing in roughly 2.2 seconds...I think this was still priced artificially high as all shares were being offered by insiders and insider avg. price per share was $11 and change. The insiders weren't going to do this deal at a lower price and rather than postpone and lose the fees Morgan Stanley/CSFB shoved this one in at $12 1/2 so insiders(including Morgan Stanley by the way) get a bit of profit for their 9.8 million shares sold on offering and Morgan Stanley/CSFB get the underwriting fees...lovely game is it not. 

as I've written, $10-$11 is where I get interested here, preferably lower $10's. 

PRAI

PRAI filling that gap just ahead of the secondary. Looks like they're targeting $23 for secondary price, based on the action past few days.  I think this is a long term winner and feel the secondary weakness is a good buying opportunity. Secondary is non-dilutive overall, and PRAI trading at a nice forward discount currently to competitors. This has been one of my favorite trading stocks since it's ipo 6 months ago, I've been fortunate to do quite well with it(although I'm kicking myself for not taking the $2 gift there last week). I'm in this time for the 5th or so go-round, from 23.75 or so now(after adds yesterday/today) and will be adding more on a break of $23 etc...

PORK priced at $ 12 1/2

I've updated my thoughts after the $12 1/2 pricing here:

http://www.tradingipos.com/analysis/analysis.html

My thoughts right now are that a $10-$11 pricing would have taken the shorter/mid-term risk out of this one and potentially set up a situation of slightly lower hog/pork prices being priced into the stock.  I'm not quite sure we're there yet at $12 1/2.  PORK is coming roughly 7 X's '05 earnings assuming slightly lower pork/hog prices so if prices do firm they should do okay. big issue here is that prices have been declining last 9 months and this is a classic cyclical industry which looks as if it's heading into it's over-production phase---if so than there will most likely be no earnings in '06, just as there were none in '02/'03. 

ZUMZ/PAY

this morning looking thru the coverage pieces on zumz/pay. The analyst estimates going forward in the post quiet period coverage essentially are the first real look we get at an ipo company's own projections. why? these estimates are spoon-fed from the company to the underwriting analysts pre-quiet period. They're not permitted to estimate in the filings and than can't really give definitive guidance for 45 days after the offering.

Verifone estimates for 2005 are 69 cents and for '06 just 76 cents. My initial estimates(and I felt I was being conservative for '05) were 50 cents for '05 and 70 cents for '06.  Pretty close, after the q1 release I felt my initial estimates were a a little too low and that looks correct here. 

ZUMZ estimates came in at 72 cents for '05 and 90 cents in '06. Mine for ZUMZ were 77 cents for '05 and roughly $1 for '06 and that looks to be spot on with the coverage.

I don't get numbers spoonfed from the company, I've my own method for modeling out forecasted earnings for new issues and I dare say I'm the only one out there forecasting current/forward earnings for every offering before they begin trading, not 'select' offerings or 45 days after the offering. You just don't get that anywhere else.  I make a living trading off my own forecasts, so I've a pretty heavy incentive to get them as accurate as I possibly can.  I really don't want to tout myself too hard here, but over the years my own estimates have been about as accurate as these pay/zumz here. 

both pre-ipo estimates can be found on the site in the report for each.

www.tradingipos.com

RACK priced $12....

This might do okay initially as tech has gotten off the mat the past 6 weeks. RACK however hasn't been able to do much better than 2% operating margins. they're in a tough low margin sector and I'm skeptical they'll ever be able to put much on the bottom line.

http://www.tradingipos.com/analysis/june/RACK.html